Daniel Biss is the Progressive Frontrunner in IL-09

February 21, 2026

To: Interested Parties

Fr: Impact Research

Re: Biss Maintains Double Digit Lead in IL CD-09, Cementing His Role as the Progressive Frontrunner

Recent polling by Impact Research among likely Democratic primary voters in Illinois’ 9th Congressional District underscores Daniel Biss’s position as the leading progressive candidate. He remains the clear frontrunner in a crowded field, holding a durable double-digit lead and the strongest underlying fundamentals, with top marks in both name recognition and favorability. By contrast, Kat Abughazaleh’s rising name ID has not translated into meaningful gains, leaving her stalled and increasingly unpopular with this electorate.

• Despite months of positive paid communications, Kat Abughazaleh’s support is stagnant. Daniel Biss leads by 13 points a 31%, clearly separated from the rest of the field. The fundamental dynamics of the race are unchanged since November, with Biss maintaining a commanding position. The only notable shift in the race is Laura Fine’s 8-point gain, moving her from third into a tie for second with Kat, who remains essentially flat at 18% (up just 1 point from 17% in November).

• As Kat’s name ID rises, her standing among voters declines. Since our November poll, her recognition has grown from 59% to 68%, but almost all of that growth has come with increased negatives. Her favorable rating has slipped from 39% to 36%, while her unfavorable rating has climbed sharply from 19% to 31%, leaving her at net +5 overall - down dramatically from the +20 net in our last poll. Meanwhile, as Daniel Biss’s profile has grown he’s stayed overwhelmingly popular and continues to have the highest name ID and strongest net favorability margin in the field (59% favorable / 24% unfavorable).

*The findings and recommendations in this memo are based on N=500 interviews of likely 2026 Democratic primary voters in IL CD-09, conducted via phone and text-to-web from February 5-10, 2026. The expected margin of sampling error is +/- 4.4% overall and is higher for subgroups.

To download this memo, click here.